All 20 Premier League clubs are set to hit the pitch this weekend for Matchday 27. The action gets underway on Saturday morning and concludes with a Monday afternoon tilt between Sheffield United and Arsenal. Let’s dive into my three favorite bets from England this weekend.
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Premier League Matchday 27 Odds, Picks & Prediction
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nottingham Forest (+450) vs. Liverpool (-185), DRAW (+370) | O/U 3.5 (+120/-150)
One of the six matches kicking off at 10:00 a.m. ET on Saturday features a battle between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool. The Reds are holding a one-point edge (60 vs. 59) over Manchester City at the top of the table, while Forest (24 points) is four points clear of the relegation line in 17th place. This contest takes place at The City Ground in Nottingham, England.
It seems like every match is a must-win game at this point for Liverpool. Since they’re taking on an inferior opponent, I think they get the job done on Saturday morning. Jurgen Klopp has the boys playing well, where they’ve won five straight matches across all competitions, and seven of their last eight (7-0-1).
While they’ve been sharp on both ends, it has been the offense that’s really taken a step forward. Over the aforementioned eight-match sample size, Liverpool is averaging 3.1 goals per game. Meanwhile, Forest has conceded 48 goals this term (1.9 GA/G), and they’re a pedestrian 1-1-4 in their last six PL matches. That includes a 1-0-2 run at home, where the Trees have typically been much tougher. All things considered, I like the way Liverpool is trending right now, and I expect them to collect the three points on Saturday. They have plenty of offensive firepower to stretch it out to a multi-goal victory.
Bet: Liverpool -1.0 (-125)
Luton Town (+340) vs. Aston Villa (-140), DRAW (+340) | O/U 3.5 (+115/-145)
Aston Villa continues to play a respectable brand of soccer, as they’re in fourth place in the table with 52 points. They’ll travel to Kenilworth Road on Saturday to square off against 18th-place Luton Town. The Hatters (20 points) are looking up at Forest in the standings, sitting four points off their pace to avoid relegation. This is the Saturday nightcap, which getting underway at 12:30 p.m. ET from Luton, England.
The Villans made light work of the Hatters earlier this season, beating them 3-1 back on Oct. 29. I’m predicting a similar outcome this time around, so I’ll lay the juice with Aston Villa on the moneyline. Unai Emery’s squad has posted a 3-0-1 record in their last four Premier League matches, out-scoring their opposition 12-5. It truly has been the offense that’s paved the way this season. Aston Villa is fourth in both goals scored (56) and expected goals scored (48.3).
While it’s never easy to win on the road, this will be a favorable matchup against a Luton Town defense that’s the third-worst in the league (51 goals conceded). The Hatters are also coming off of that brutal 6-2 mid-week beatdown at the hands of Manchester City in the FA Cup. They’re now 0-1-4 in their last five matches across all competitions, allowing an insane 3.8 goals per match. I don’t think Rob Edwards will be able to turn their defensive woes around overnight, especially against a high-octane offense like Aston Villa.
Bet: Aston Villa Moneyline (-140)
Manchester City (-390) vs. Manchester United (+900), DRAW (+550) | O/U 3.5 (-110/-120)
The Manchester derby renews this weekend as United makes the trip across town to take on City. The Citizens are sitting second in the table (59 points), while the Red Devils are in sixth (44 points). Kickoff is scheduled for Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET from the Etihad Stadium in Manchester, England.
I’m a little shocked to see City as such a massive favorite to win this game. I mean, sure, they’re on fire (16-2-0 in their last 18 matches across all competitions), so it makes sense. However, United appears to be finding its footing as well. They’ve been heating up, going 7-1-1 in their last nine matches across all competitions. You have to go all the way back to Dec. 23 (12 matches) to find the last time United has lost by multiple goals (2-0 vs. West Ham).
Ultimately, City should obviously be favored in this game, but I think it’s worth a flier on United +1.5 goals. Plus, we get a slight plus-money payout. This seems like a no-brainer to me. City is in its championship form, typically consisting of them controlling possession while trying to win every game 1-0. In fact, those are the two scores in their recent PL matches against Bournemouth and Brentford, who are both bottom-of-the-table teams. With a step-up in competition against an upward-trending United squad, I don’t think they’ll cruise to an easy victory. Look for Erik ten Hag to keep this game within a goal and maybe even push for a draw.
Bet: Manchester United +1.5 (+105)
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