Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Odds, Player Props & Predictions

Jun 27, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) during the sixth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY SportsThe red-hot Chicago Cubs look to extend a four-game win streak when they visit the Cleveland Guardians on MondayShota Imanaga starts for the Cubs while Ben Lively goes for the GuardiansSee the Cubs vs Guardians odds, player-prop picks, and predictions for Aug. 12

Riding an MLB-best four-game win streak (tied with Seattle), the Chicago Cubs (59-60, 27-33 away) head to Cleveland to start a three-game series with the AL Central-leading Guardians (69-49, 35-20), who own the best home record in all of baseball.

All-Star Shota Imanaga gets the start for Chicago opposite Ben Lively for the home team. With Chicago rolling out its top starter, the Cubs vs Guardians slightly favor the road team.

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Odds

The Cubs are -120 road chalk in Monday’s MLB odds and +145 on the runline to win by at least two runs. The Guardians come back as even-money home underdogs and -175 to keep the score within a run. The game total is sitting at 8.0 with the under modestly favored at -115.

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Odds as of August 12 at BetMGM. Claim the current BetMGM promo to wager on Cubs vs Guardians on Monday. 

Holding a 3.5-gamelead on Minnesota in the AL Central, the Guardians are as short as -200 to win the Central in the latest MLB division odds.

The Cubs are all but out of the running in the NL Central, sitting nine back of the division-leading Brewers. They’re only three games out of a Wild Card spot, but three teams (Mets, Cardinals, Giants) sit between the Cubs and the Braves for the third and final NL Wild Card.

Shota Imanaga vs Ben Lively

ImanagaVSLively

Shota Imanaga has mostly excellent since the All-Star break: in four starts, he’s combined to throw 26.1 innings while allowing 10 runs on 20 hits and two walks with 30 strikeouts. He reached double-digit Ks in two of those starts, including last time out when he pitched 7.0 innings of two-run ball in a 7-3 win over the Twins.

Crucially, the Cubs are 4-0 in Imanaga’s four starts since the All-Star break.

In his first MLB season, the 30-year-old Japanese star will be making his first career start against the Guardians. No one in the Cleveland lineup has ever faced him before.

While the Cubs, as a team, have been much better at home than on the road, Imanaga’s splits favor away games. The lefty has a 2.75 ERA on the road and a 3.30 ERA at Wrigley.

Cleveland starter Ben Lively has also been solid since the break, combining to throw 22.1 innings while allowing nine runs on 17 hits and nine walks with 14 Ks. His most-recent outing left a little to be desired, though, giving up four runs on four hits (two homers) and four walks over 5.0 innings in a 7-3 loss to the Diamondbacks.

There isn’t much history between Lively and the Cubs’ hitters, but what history exists heavily favors the batters. In 21 ABs, the Cub lineup is slashing .429/.500/1.000 with four home runs, three walks, and just three strikeouts. Dansby Swanson is 3-for-7 with two homers, while Cody Bellinger is 3-for-3 with a home run and Mike Tauchman is 2-for-2 with a dinger.

The bulk of that damage came in one horrendous game last season when Lively was with the Reds; he allowed 13 runs on 13 hits over 4.0 innings in an embarrassing 20-9 loss. The Cubs tagged 32-year-old righty for multiple runs in each of the first four innings.

Lively finished last season with a 5.38 ERA in 88.2 innings. Those four disastrous innings against the Cubs last August raised his ERA from a 3.76 to 5.20, which is almost unheard of that deep into a season.

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Cubs vs Guardians Predictions

Lively is having a solid season, but he doesn’t have a lot of strikeout material and his peripherals indicate he’s going to regress when it comes to run prevention; his FIP (4.76) and xFIP (4.53) are closer to five than to four.

When you add in last year’s debacle against the Cubs, it’s difficult to back the Guardians’ starter, even though Cleveland has been literally the best home team in the MLB this year.

CHC vs CLE picks:

Cubs first 5 innings moneyline (-135)Lively under 4.5 strikeouts (-118)

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