We have just 12 weeks remaining in what has been a terrific 2022-23 La Liga season, as Barcelona takes one step closer to shutting the door on the rest of the league. With 68 points, they sit 12 games ahead of Real Madrid, and a full 55 points ahead of last-place Elche.
With Matchday 27 upon us, let’s take a closer look at a couple of matches I’m dialed in on.
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La Liga Matchday 27 Preview & Best Bets (2023)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Athletic Bilbao vs. Getafe
The supporters of Getafe will be overjoyed to see Enes Unal safely return from his overseas assignment. The Turkish attacker participated in most of his country’s two European Qualification games against Croatia and Armenia, boosting himself to an assist in the matches.
Unal has scored eight goals for his team in Getafe’s previous seven games, with an xG of 5.76, taking 26 shots during that time and scoring back-to-back hat tricks. Unal’s ability to score goals is crucial to Getafe’s chances of staying alive and avoiding relegation, and on the season, he has contributed to 48% of his team’s goals, the highest percentage of any player in Spain’s top division and the second most in the top five leagues in Europe.
There is no chance that the 25-year-goal-old’s surplus and Azulones’ improved play are not related, as they’ve lost just one match since. January 28th. Facing a Bilbao side that’s lost three of their past five matches, and I like for Unal to be the difference in a match I think is mispriced.
Pick: Getafe (+550)
Elche vs. Barcelona
Elche welcomes Barcelona as the action on Saturday concludes with a top vs. bottom match.
Los Franjiverdes has given up the most goals in La Liga this season (51), and their only shutout came against Mallorca in a game they lost 1.24 xGA. The hosts on Saturday have also scored the fewest goals (19), with a goal average of 0.73 per game.
Only Real Madrid (51) has scored more goals than the Catalonians (49), but Xavi’s team has allowed fewer goals overall than any other team. In a match likely over by the halfway point, Barca slots a few home early and then coast the rest of the way, winning this one with ease.
Pick: Barcelona -1 (-105)
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