Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Summer League Odds, Picks & Predictions on July 17

Jul 10, 2024; San Francisco, CA, USA; Miami Heat guard Zyon Pullin (17) controls the ball against the Los Angeles Lakers during the first quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY SportsThe Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks kick-off NBA Summer League play on WednesdayThe Heat have rattled off four straight wins since a blowout loss to the Warriors in their first Summer League game, while the Mavs remain winlessSee the Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks odds, spread, picks, and predictions for July 17

Since getting absolutely thrashed by Golden State, 105-66, in their first Summer League game, the Miami Heat (4-1) have put together four straight wins, including a 102-73 laugher against OKC last time out.

At noon PT/3:00 pm ET on Wednesday afternoon at the Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas, the Heat will try to make it five straight when they face the still-winless Dallas Mavericks (0-2), who were on the wrong end of a 108-88 shellacking against Memphis on Monday.

Not surprisingly, Miami is a sizable favorite in the Heat vs Mavericks odds on Wednesday.

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Odds

The Heat are listed as five-point ATS favorites over the Mavs and -215 on the moneyline to win straight-up. The Mavericks come back as +172 underdogs. The game total is sitting at 182.5.

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Odds as of July 17 at FanDuel. Use the top NBA betting apps to wager on 2024 Summer League. 

Jacquez Jr Dominating for Heat

Jaime Jacquez Jr has joined the Heat for their Summer League exploits in Vegas (he didn’t play in the first three games in California) and has looked like a men among boys. The 23-year-old averaged 11.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in 75 games for the Heat in the regular season last year (20 as a starter). It’s not unprecedented but it is rare for a player as established as Jacquez to participate in Summer League.

Jacquez has been playing hard, too. He dropped 29 points with 11 rebounds and five assists in 31 minutes during a 119-114 win over Boston on Saturday. He followed up that sensational performance with 23 points, five rebounds, two assists, and two steals in just 25 minutes in Miami’s rout of OKC on Monday.

Jacquez has been supplemented by two huge performances off the bench from Josh Christopher, a first-round pick of the Rockets back in 2021. Christopher had 23 points against the Thunder on 8-of-11 shooting (6-of-8 from three) and 20 against the Celtics on 7-of-9 from the field (3-of-3 from three).

Christopher appeared in 138 games for Houston from 2021 to 2023, averaging 6.9 PPG and shooting just 27.7% from three. But his accuracy from deep took a huge leap after he was relegated to the G-League last season, hitting at 36.6% from beyond the arc for Sioux Falls.

Miami’s 2024 first-round pick, Kel’el Ware out of Indiana (15th overall), has been another bright spot. He’s averaging 16.5 PPG and 8.0 RPG in 25.8 MPG during his first four Summer League games.

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Top-Heavy Mavericks Struggling

A trio of Mavericks who played meaningful minutes in last year’s regular-season have spearheaded the Dallas attack in Summer League: AJ Lawson (3.2 PPG, 1.2 APG in 42 GP), Brandon Williams (3.2 PPG in 17 GP), and Olivier-Maxence Prosper (3.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG in 40 GP). But only Williams has been remotely efficient, scoring 32 points combined on 50% shooting (10-of-20). Prosper has averaged 13.5 PPG in the first two games but is just 8-of-25 from the field, while Lawson is averaging 15.0 PPG on 8-of-26 shooting.

In a narrow 90-89 loss to Utah, Dallas shot just 38.2% from the field, failing to capitalize on a +9 rebounding edge. In the blowout loss to the Grizzlies, turnovers were the biggest contributing factor: the Mavs gave the ball away 27 times in just 40 minutes. Williams, Prosper, and Lawson accounted for 11 total and at least three apiece. Backup point guard Jazian Gortman had five in six minutes on the floor. 

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions & Picks for July 17

With Jacquez out there playing like it’s the NBA playoffs, I fully expect Miami’s win streak to continue on Wednesday. The Mavericks just don’t have the same level of talent on the floor, and they look incohesive. The Mavs have committed as many turnovers (37) as they have assists. Their chemistry should improve as the Summer League goes on, but I am not betting on that happening tonight.

The spread is still sitting at 4.5 at DraftKings and Caesars (-110 both ways), which is the best price available on the Heat against the spread.

Picks: Heat -4.5 (-110) at DraftKings and/or Caesars Sportsbook

Sascha Paruk’s Summer League betting record: 2-2 (+0.25 units).All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise. 

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