While tonight’s slate only includes five games, there are still some solid NRFIs on the board. I’ll provide my favorite two so we can sweat it out together!
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet €“ Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet €“ Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Thursday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Baltimore Orioles (-110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-110)
Projected Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers vs. Ben Lively
The Orioles haven’t confirmed a starter, but with the empty spot, Trevor Rogers will likely get the start. Rogers was just traded from the Marlins to the Orioles in exchange for two really high-level prospects. There’s a lot of pressure on Rogers, but the Orioles wouldn’t have made the trade if they didn’t think Rogers could be a top-of-the-line starter.
The left-hander has held his last 104 batters to a .130 ISO and has allowed just 19.2% of line drives. He’s also kept walks below 10% in the previous 30 days.
Rogers won’t have it easy against Steven Kwan, Lane Thomas, or Jose Ramirez. However, Kwan and Ramirez rarely walk against lefties. If Rogers can keep his ISO and power down, then there’s a better chance he can get those two outs with a ball in play.
Even if those two get on, for example, the lineup from 4-9 all have ISO below .145 against lefties over the last 30 days. He could work out of trouble and finish the first unscathed.
On the other hand, Ben Lively will start for Cleveland. He’s been average at best, but he’ll face an Orioles top of the lineup that has struggled a bit. Colton Cowser will likely lead off, but he’s struck out 25.4% of the time against righties in the last month. Meanwhile, Adley Rutschman has hit a .073 ISO and wOBA of .212 against his last 63 righties, and Gunnar Henderson has hit just a .104 ISO against righties over the last month.
Take the NRFI at +100 in this game.
Bet: NRFI (+100)
Miami Marlins (+164) at Atlanta Braves (-198)
Projected Starting Pitchers: Max Meyer vs. Charlie Morton
The Marlins will give Max Meyer another start. He’s a righty who has held 81 batters to a .289 wOBA this season. Meyer struck out 28.6% of righties in his return game last week.
Tonight, he’ll take on three consecutive righties with a strikeout rate of at least 27.2%, including Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna. If one batter happens to get on, he’ll face Matt Olson, who has been awful against righties, hitting a .103 ISO and wOBA of .233 against them over the last 30 days.
The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton. Morton has earned 52.3% of ground balls over the last 30 days and has limited teams to 16.9% of line drives. His ISO and wOBA are high, but as long as he continues to produce those ground balls, he’ll be all right.
Morton is taking on a Marlins squad that lost much of its lineup over the trade deadline. The entire lineup has hit a .098 ISO and has few power threats. It has also struck out at a very high rate and isn’t earning a lot of walks. Jake Burger is ultimately one of the two threats in the Miami lineup. But he’s also struck out nearly 35% of the time against righties over the last month.
Bet: NRFI (-120)
