The second half of the 2024 WNBA season is winding down with only a couple of weeks of regular season action left. I am still here breaking down the top picks on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this season. Join me as we build our bankrolls heading into the playoffs!
Let’s get into the action for Thursday, September 5. Be sure to check with our WNBA Prop Projections when building your tickets.
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Thursday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Mystics (+225) at Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) | O/U 176.5 (-112/-108)
Brittney Griner is 6-4 against this number in her last 10 games dating back to her last time facing the Mystics. Back on July 16 Griner dropped 23 points in 29 minutes in her final game before the All-Star game and her successful quest for another Olympic gold medal.
The 33-year-old out of Baylor is averaging 18.3 points this season so all she needs is to hit her average for this to cash. That being said, Griner is an interesting case because her average is really just that, an average or a mean. She regularly finishes well above or well below this number, meaning she is very likely either going to cash this prop easily or not even come close.
Let’s look at how many games this season Griner has finished around this number (17.5) and/or her actual season average (18.3). Let’s use the metric of 16-point to 19-point finishes for the Merc big. In 24 games this season, Griner has finished inside the 4-point window on just five occasions. While her point totals have been relatively volatile, Griner is 15-9 against a 17.5-point line this season so she has blown away this prop more often than not, scoring 20+ in 11-of-24 (45.8%) of games this season.
WNBA Pick: Brittney Griner Over 17.5 Points (-114)
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.
