After a month-long Olympics break, the WNBA season is back in full swing. We have two games on tap for Wednesday night, so let’s check out top WNBA picks and bets. Our best bets tonight feature the Lynx vs. Aces in the best matchup of the night. Plus, we have a pick in the Mercury vs. Dream game. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these top WNBA predictions and betting picks!
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) €“ O/U 167 (-110/-110)
Wednesday night’s marquee matchup features the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Minnesota Lynx. Two of the top teams in the WNBA will go head-to-head in a nationally televised game on ESPN tonight. Let’s see how to bet this late tipoff.
Since returning from the Olympic break, the Aces are 1-1 with a double-digit loss to New York and a 16-point victory over Los Angeles. Although that loss looks bad on paper, Las Vegas was likely shaking off a bit of rust in its first game back €“ while also facing a Liberty team that already had a game under its belt. It’s encouraging to see the Aces bounce back with the convincing win over a lower-tier Sparks squad.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has won both of its games by double-digits since the break. However, it’s worth noting that both wins came against last-place Washington. The Lynx haven’t faced a quality opponent in this second half of the season. In fact, Minnesota lost its previous three matchups against teams with a winning record €“ going 0-3 ATS as well vs. Seattle, Connecticut, and New York.
Las Vegas is more proven and battle-tested than Minnesota, not only since the resumption of play but going back a few months. Since point guard Chelsea Gray returned from injury in June, the Aces are 11-3, averaging 88.6 PPG (first in WNBA) and allowing 79.6 PPG. In this stretch, they also boast the second-best net rating in the WNBA behind only the Liberty.
The Lynx have arguably the best defense in the WNBA, allowing 75.1 PPG and a league-low 40.5% FG percentage. However, they may have trouble keeping pace with the Aces and matching them on the scoreboard on the road here. Over the past 14 games, Minnesota is shooting a league-low 41.7% from the field and averaging only 77.6 PPG (second-worst). It’s almost the exact opposite direction that Vegas’ offense has gone in the past two months.
Take the Aces to cover the spread at home tonight in what should be an entertaining game. MVP favorite A’ja Wilson has begun this second half on fire with 58 points, 24 rebounds, 8 steals, and 5 blocks in the first two games combined. She will set the tone for Vegas’ convincing win.
WNBA Pick: Aces -5.5 (-110)
Phoenix Mercury (-2) at Atlanta Dream €“ O/U 165.5 (-112/-108)
The early WNBA tipoff on Wednesday brings us the Atlanta Dream hosting the Phoneix Mercury. This one may not have the same firepower as tonight’s Lynx vs. Aces matchup, but there’s still a nice betting angle to take advantage of here.
Atlanta has surprised the league coming out of the Olympic break with two upset wins over a pair of playoff contenders in Connecticut and Seattle. Yet, we shouldn’t put too much stock into those victories. The Dream should regress back to their losing ways as it’s unlikely they’ve flipped the script on the season.
Before the break, the Dream had lost 8 straight games and gone 1-11 over their previous 12 games. They have the worst offense in the WNBA this season, ranking last in points per game (75.8), field-goal percentage (41.4%), assists per game (18.4), and offensive rating.
Meanwhile, the Mercury have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking third in both points per game (84.1) and offensive rating. Phoenix is 2-1 since the break with a pair of double-digit wins over Chicago. Those blowout victories continue an interesting trend with the Mercury and it applies directly to tonight’s matchup.
Phoenix is one of those teams that have beaten up on the bottom tier of the WNBA and struggled against the top squads. When facing the bottom five teams in the current standings, the Mercury are 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS. On the same note, they are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games as favorites.
Atlanta clearly qualifies as a bottom-tier team and we should see the Mercury take care of business with a comfortable victory. These squads faced off at the beginning of the season and Phoenix won and covered the spread in that one. Let’s bank on it happening again.
WNBA Pick: Mercury -2 (-110)
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